Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 / Al Wehda Club vs Al Jabalain

Al Wehda Club vs Al Jabalain Statistics & Analysis

Al Wehda Club Al Wehda Club
May 14, 2026 - 16:35
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Al Jabalain Al Jabalain
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Wehda Club Al Jabalain ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 08:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2918971

Closing Odds 3.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al Jabalain win · Al Wehda Club 0–1 Al Jabalain
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Al Wehda Club (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al Wehda Club (1X2) by about 12.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al Wehda Club (1X2) 41.8 29.6 +12.2
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.3 -0.6
Al Jabalain (1X2) 32.6 44.1 -11.6
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 59.1 -8.5
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 40.9 +8.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Al Wehda Club (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.6%. The difference — about 12.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al Wehda Club (1X2) 3.13 3.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0
Al Jabalain (1X2) 2.1 2.1 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Jabalain
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Al Wehda Club 1.45 — Al Jabalain 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Abha 34 24 5 5 77
2 Al-Faisaly FC 34 21 10 3 73
3 Al Diriyah 34 22 6 6 72
4 Al Ula 34 21 8 5 71
5 Al Orubah 34 20 5 9 65
6 Al Jabalain 34 17 8 9 59
7 Al-Raed 34 14 10 10 52
8 Al Zulfi 34 11 12 11 45
9 Al Taee 34 12 8 14 44
10 Al Wehda Club 34 12 7 15 43
11 Al Bukayriyah 34 12 7 15 43
12 Al Anwar 34 10 11 13 41
13 Jeddah Club 34 9 12 13 39
14 Al-Adalah 34 8 9 17 33
15 Al Jandal 34 8 8 18 32
16 Al Baten 34 5 7 22 22
17 Al Arabi SC 34 5 6 23 21
18 Al Jubail 34 3 5 26 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Diriyah 34 79 39 +40 72
2 Al-Faisaly FC 34 76 32 +44 73
3 Al Ula 34 72 33 +39 71
4 Abha 34 64 35 +29 77
5 Al-Raed 34 64 46 +18 52
6 Al Jabalain 34 59 38 +21 59
7 Al Orubah 34 56 38 +18 65
8 Al Anwar 34 53 54 -1 41
9 Al Wehda Club 34 52 58 -6 43
10 Al Taee 34 48 52 -4 44
11 Al Zulfi 34 46 45 +1 45
12 Al-Adalah 34 44 70 -26 33
13 Al Baten 34 39 69 -30 22
14 Al Bukayriyah 34 36 48 -12 43
15 Jeddah Club 34 34 51 -17 39
16 Al Jandal 34 34 60 -26 32
17 Al Jubail 34 28 73 -45 14
18 Al Arabi SC 34 24 67 -43 21
Division 1 Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 Predictions