Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 / Al Baten vs Al Bukayriyah

Al Baten vs Al Bukayriyah Statistics & Analysis

Al Baten Al Baten
May 03, 2026 - 16:10
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Al Bukayriyah Al Bukayriyah
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Baten Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2338080

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Al Baten 0–0 Al Bukayriyah
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Al Bukayriyah (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al Bukayriyah (1X2) by about 2.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al Baten (1X2) 41.8 43.3 -1.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.9 -1.3
Al Bukayriyah (1X2) 32.6 29.7 +2.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 50.5 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 49.5 -0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Al Bukayriyah (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.7%. The difference — about 2.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al Baten (1X2) 2.14 2.14 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.44 3.44 0.0
Al Bukayriyah (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.92 1.92 0.0

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Back to Statistics
Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Abha 34 24 5 5 77
2 Al-Faisaly FC 34 21 10 3 73
3 Al Diriyah 34 22 6 6 72
4 Al Ula 34 21 8 5 71
5 Al Orubah 34 20 5 9 65
6 Al Jabalain 34 17 8 9 59
7 Al-Raed 34 14 10 10 52
8 Al Zulfi 34 11 12 11 45
9 Al Taee 34 12 8 14 44
10 Al Wehda Club 34 12 7 15 43
11 Al Bukayriyah 34 12 7 15 43
12 Al Anwar 34 10 11 13 41
13 Jeddah Club 34 9 12 13 39
14 Al-Adalah 34 8 9 17 33
15 Al Jandal 34 8 8 18 32
16 Al Baten 34 5 7 22 22
17 Al Arabi SC 34 5 6 23 21
18 Al Jubail 34 3 5 26 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Diriyah 34 79 39 +40 72
2 Al-Faisaly FC 34 76 32 +44 73
3 Al Ula 34 72 33 +39 71
4 Abha 34 64 35 +29 77
5 Al-Raed 34 64 46 +18 52
6 Al Jabalain 34 59 38 +21 59
7 Al Orubah 34 56 38 +18 65
8 Al Anwar 34 53 54 -1 41
9 Al Wehda Club 34 52 58 -6 43
10 Al Taee 34 48 52 -4 44
11 Al Zulfi 34 46 45 +1 45
12 Al-Adalah 34 44 70 -26 33
13 Al Baten 34 39 69 -30 22
14 Al Bukayriyah 34 36 48 -12 43
15 Jeddah Club 34 34 51 -17 39
16 Al Jandal 34 34 60 -26 32
17 Al Jubail 34 28 73 -45 14
18 Al Arabi SC 34 24 67 -43 21