Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso Statistics & Analysis

Defensores De Belgrano

Oct 11, 2026 - 18:30

0 1.33

3 1.27

xG Accuracy: 43%

Acassuso

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Defensores De Belgrano Acassuso ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 07:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13280873

Closing Odds 1.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Acassuso win · Defensores De Belgrano 0–3 Acassuso

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Acassuso (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Acassuso (1X2) by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Defensores De Belgrano (1X2)	36.6	54.3	-17.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.2	+1.4
Acassuso (1X2)	33.8	17.5	+16.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Acassuso (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.5%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Defensores De Belgrano (1X2)	1.69	1.69
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Acassuso (1X2)	5.25	5.25

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Defensores De Belgrano 1.33 — Acassuso 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Defensores De Belgrano & Acassuso!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	18	8	7	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	17	7	9	58
3	Godoy Cruz	32	16	8	8	56
4	Deportivo Madryn	33	14	11	8	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	33	14	11	8	53
6	CA Estudiantes	33	13	9	11	48
7	Almirante Brown	33	12	11	10	47
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	11	12	9	45
9	Los Andes	32	9	13	10	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	10	10	13	40
11	Defensores De Belgrano	33	8	13	12	37
12	San Telmo	32	9	10	13	37
13	Racing Cordoba	32	9	10	13	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	7	15	11	36
15	Central Norte	33	6	16	11	34
16	All Boys	32	6	15	11	33
17	Acassuso	33	8	8	17	32
18	San Miguel	33	6	14	13	32

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	33	51	34	+17	58
2	Deportivo Madryn	33	47	30	+17	53
3	Godoy Cruz	32	42	29	+13	56
4	Colon Santa Fe	33	39	25	+14	53
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	37	28	+9	62
6	Chaco For Ever	33	32	34	-2	40
7	CA Estudiantes	33	31	27	+4	48
8	Racing Cordoba	32	29	39	-10	37
9	Atletico Mitre	33	29	39	-10	36
10	San Telmo	32	28	36	-8	37
11	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	27	28	-1	45
12	Almirante Brown	33	26	22	+4	47
13	San Miguel	33	26	39	-13	32
14	Los Andes	32	25	23	+2	40
15	Defensores De Belgrano	33	25	32	-7	37
16	Acassuso	33	25	35	-10	32
17	Central Norte	33	21	30	-9	34
18	All Boys	32	18	28	-10	33