Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman Statistics & Analysis

Atlanta Atlanta
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlanta Atlanta ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13234859

Closing Odds 4.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atlanta win · Atlanta 1–0 San Martin Tucuman
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices San Martin Tucuman (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on San Martin Tucuman (1X2) by about 12.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atlanta (1X2) 35.2 46.1 -11.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.8 -1.1
San Martin Tucuman (1X2) 35.2 23.1 +12.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on San Martin Tucuman (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.1%. The difference — about 12.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atlanta (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
San Martin Tucuman (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Atlanta 1.3 — San Martin Tucuman 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 40.3% · Probability edge: +14.2 pts · Est. EV: +36.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 33 18 8 7 62
2 Deportivo Moron 33 17 7 9 58
3 Godoy Cruz 32 16 8 8 56
4 Deportivo Madryn 33 14 11 8 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 33 14 11 8 53
6 CA Estudiantes 33 13 9 11 48
7 Almirante Brown 33 12 11 10 47
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 11 12 9 45
9 Los Andes 32 9 13 10 40
10 Chaco For Ever 33 10 10 13 40
11 Defensores De Belgrano 33 8 13 12 37
12 San Telmo 32 9 10 13 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 37
14 Atletico Mitre 33 7 15 11 36
15 Central Norte 33 6 16 11 34
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 33
17 Acassuso 33 8 8 17 32
18 San Miguel 33 6 14 13 32
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 33 51 34 +17 58
2 Deportivo Madryn 33 47 30 +17 53
3 Godoy Cruz 32 42 29 +13 56
4 Colon Santa Fe 33 39 25 +14 53
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 33 37 28 +9 62
6 Chaco For Ever 33 32 34 -2 40
7 CA Estudiantes 33 31 27 +4 48
8 Racing Cordoba 32 29 39 -10 37
9 Atletico Mitre 33 29 39 -10 36
10 San Telmo 32 28 36 -8 37
11 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 27 28 -1 45
12 Almirante Brown 33 26 22 +4 47
13 San Miguel 33 26 39 -13 32
14 Los Andes 32 25 23 +2 40
15 Defensores De Belgrano 33 25 32 -7 37
16 Acassuso 33 25 35 -10 32
17 Central Norte 33 21 30 -9 34
18 All Boys 32 18 28 -10 33
Primera Nacional Argentina. Primera Nacional Predictions