Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Almirante Brown vs San Miguel

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel Statistics & Analysis

Almirante Brown Almirante Brown
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
San Miguel San Miguel
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Almirante Brown Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13234768

Closing Odds 4.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Almirante Brown 1–1 San Miguel
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices San Miguel (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on San Miguel (1X2) by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Almirante Brown (1X2) 36.6 47.5 -10.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.0 -1.4
San Miguel (1X2) 33.8 21.5 +12.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on San Miguel (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.5%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Almirante Brown (1X2) 1.96 1.96 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
San Miguel (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Almirante Brown 1.33 — San Miguel 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 33 18 8 7 62
2 Deportivo Moron 33 17 7 9 58
3 Godoy Cruz 32 16 8 8 56
4 Deportivo Madryn 33 14 11 8 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 33 14 11 8 53
6 CA Estudiantes 33 13 9 11 48
7 Almirante Brown 33 12 11 10 47
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 11 12 9 45
9 Los Andes 32 9 13 10 40
10 Chaco For Ever 33 10 10 13 40
11 Defensores De Belgrano 33 8 13 12 37
12 San Telmo 32 9 10 13 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 37
14 Atletico Mitre 33 7 15 11 36
15 Central Norte 33 6 16 11 34
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 33
17 Acassuso 33 8 8 17 32
18 San Miguel 33 6 14 13 32
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 33 51 34 +17 58
2 Deportivo Madryn 33 47 30 +17 53
3 Godoy Cruz 32 42 29 +13 56
4 Colon Santa Fe 33 39 25 +14 53
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 33 37 28 +9 62
6 Chaco For Ever 33 32 34 -2 40
7 CA Estudiantes 33 31 27 +4 48
8 Racing Cordoba 32 29 39 -10 37
9 Atletico Mitre 33 29 39 -10 36
10 San Telmo 32 28 36 -8 37
11 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 27 28 -1 45
12 Almirante Brown 33 26 22 +4 47
13 San Miguel 33 26 39 -13 32
14 Los Andes 32 25 23 +2 40
15 Defensores De Belgrano 33 25 32 -7 37
16 Acassuso 33 25 35 -10 32
17 Central Norte 33 21 30 -9 34
18 All Boys 32 18 28 -10 33
Primera Nacional Argentina. Primera Nacional Predictions