San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre Statistics & Analysis

San Miguel

Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 56%

Atletico Mitre

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 San Miguel Atletico Mitre ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11257542

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atletico Mitre win · San Miguel 0–2 Atletico Mitre

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): San Miguel 1.34 — Atletico Mitre 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	18	7	7	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	17	7	8	58
3	Deportivo Madryn	32	14	11	7	53
4	Godoy Cruz	31	15	8	8	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	32	14	10	8	52
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	46
7	CA Estudiantes	32	12	9	11	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	11	12	9	45
9	Los Andes	31	9	13	9	40
10	Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	36
11	Defensores De Belgrano	31	8	12	11	36
12	Racing Cordoba	31	9	9	13	36
13	Atletico Mitre	32	7	14	11	35
14	San Telmo	31	8	10	13	34
15	All Boys	32	6	15	11	33
16	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	32
17	San Miguel	32	6	13	13	31
18	Acassuso	32	7	8	17	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	32	51	32	+19	58
2	Deportivo Madryn	32	46	28	+18	53
3	Godoy Cruz	31	40	28	+12	53
4	Colon Santa Fe	32	39	25	+14	52
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	36	27	+9	61
6	CA Estudiantes	32	29	27	+2	45
7	Atletico Mitre	32	29	39	-10	35
8	Chaco For Ever	31	28	31	-3	36
9	Racing Cordoba	31	28	38	-10	36
10	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	27	28	-1	45
11	San Telmo	31	25	34	-9	34
12	San Miguel	32	25	38	-13	31
13	Los Andes	31	24	21	+3	40
14	Almirante Brown	31	23	18	+5	46
15	Defensores De Belgrano	31	23	27	-4	36
16	Acassuso	32	22	35	-13	29
17	Central Norte	31	19	28	-9	32
18	All Boys	32	18	28	-10	33