Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu Statistics & Analysis

Nueva Chicago

Oct 05, 2026 - 20:00

0 1.24

1 1.36

xG Accuracy: 64%

Deportivo Maipu

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261163

Closing Odds 3.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo Maipu win · Nueva Chicago 0–1 Deportivo Maipu

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Maipu (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Maipu (1X2) by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nueva Chicago (1X2)	32.4	38.1	-5.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	33.3	-3.7
Deportivo Maipu (1X2)	38.0	28.6	+9.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Deportivo Maipu (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.6%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Nueva Chicago (1X2)	2.4	2.4
Draw (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Deportivo Maipu (1X2)	3.2	3.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Nueva Chicago 1.24 — Deportivo Maipu 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 40.7% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	18	7	7	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	17	7	8	58
3	Godoy Cruz	32	16	8	8	56
4	Deportivo Madryn	32	14	11	7	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	32	14	10	8	52
6	Almirante Brown	32	12	10	10	46
7	CA Estudiantes	32	12	9	11	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	11	12	9	45
9	Los Andes	32	9	13	10	40
10	Chaco For Ever	32	9	10	13	37
11	Defensores De Belgrano	32	8	13	11	37
12	San Telmo	32	9	10	13	37
13	Racing Cordoba	32	9	10	13	37
14	Atletico Mitre	32	7	14	11	35
15	Central Norte	32	6	15	11	33
16	All Boys	32	6	15	11	33
17	San Miguel	32	6	13	13	31
18	Acassuso	32	7	8	17	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	32	51	32	+19	58
2	Deportivo Madryn	32	46	28	+18	53
3	Godoy Cruz	32	42	29	+13	56
4	Colon Santa Fe	32	39	25	+14	52
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	36	27	+9	61
6	Chaco For Ever	32	30	33	-3	37
7	CA Estudiantes	32	29	27	+2	45
8	Racing Cordoba	32	29	39	-10	37
9	Atletico Mitre	32	29	39	-10	35
10	San Telmo	32	28	36	-8	37
11	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	27	28	-1	45
12	Almirante Brown	32	25	21	+4	46
13	Los Andes	32	25	23	+2	40
14	Defensores De Belgrano	32	25	29	-4	37
15	San Miguel	32	25	38	-13	31
16	Acassuso	32	22	35	-13	29
17	Central Norte	32	20	29	-9	33
18	All Boys	32	18	28	-10	33