Deportivo Moron vs All Boys Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Moron

Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 78%

All Boys

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11257475

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo Moron win · Deportivo Moron 2–1 All Boys

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices All Boys (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Deportivo Moron (1X2)	38.0	53.8	-15.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.4	+0.2
All Boys (1X2)	32.4	16.8	+15.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	32.4	+15.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	67.6	-15.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.4%. The difference — about 15.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Deportivo Moron (1X2)	1.76	1.76
Draw (1X2)	3.22	3.22
All Boys (1X2)	5.64	5.64
Over 2.5 goals	2.92	2.92
Under 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Deportivo Moron vs All Boys
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Deportivo Moron 1.36 — All Boys 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	18	7	7	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	17	7	8	58
3	Deportivo Madryn	32	14	11	7	53
4	Godoy Cruz	31	15	8	8	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	32	14	10	8	52
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	46
7	CA Estudiantes	32	12	9	11	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	11	12	9	45
9	Los Andes	31	9	13	9	40
10	Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	36
11	Defensores De Belgrano	31	8	12	11	36
12	Racing Cordoba	31	9	9	13	36
13	Atletico Mitre	32	7	14	11	35
14	San Telmo	31	8	10	13	34
15	All Boys	32	6	15	11	33
16	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	32
17	San Miguel	32	6	13	13	31
18	Acassuso	32	7	8	17	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	32	51	32	+19	58
2	Deportivo Madryn	32	46	28	+18	53
3	Godoy Cruz	31	40	28	+12	53
4	Colon Santa Fe	32	39	25	+14	52
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	36	27	+9	61
6	CA Estudiantes	32	29	27	+2	45
7	Atletico Mitre	32	29	39	-10	35
8	Chaco For Ever	31	28	31	-3	36
9	Racing Cordoba	31	28	38	-10	36
10	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	27	28	-1	45
11	San Telmo	31	25	34	-9	34
12	San Miguel	32	25	38	-13	31
13	Los Andes	31	24	21	+3	40
14	Almirante Brown	31	23	18	+5	46
15	Defensores De Belgrano	31	23	27	-4	36
16	Acassuso	32	22	35	-13	29
17	Central Norte	31	19	28	-9	32
18	All Boys	32	18	28	-10	33