Club Atlético Güemes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Statistics & Analysis

Club Atlético Güemes

Sep 06, 2026 - 20:00

1 1.27

3 1.33

xG Accuracy: 59%

Gimnasia Y Tiro

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6373686

Closing Odds 2.93

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Gimnasia Y Tiro win · Club Atlético Güemes 1–3 Gimnasia Y Tiro

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gimnasia Y Tiro (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 16.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Club Atlético Güemes (1X2)	33.8	35.3	-1.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	32.2	-2.5
Gimnasia Y Tiro (1X2)	36.6	32.5	+4.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	31.7	+16.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	68.3	-16.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.7%. The difference — about 16.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Club Atlético Güemes (1X2)	2.7	2.7
Draw (1X2)	2.96	2.96
Gimnasia Y Tiro (1X2)	2.93	2.93
Over 2.5 goals	3.0	3.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.39	1.39

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Club Atlético Güemes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Club Atlético Güemes 1.27 — Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +15.0 pts · Est. EV: +44.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	18	7	6	61
2	Deportivo Moron	31	16	7	8	55
3	Godoy Cruz	31	15	8	8	53
4	Deportivo Madryn	31	13	11	7	50
5	Colon Santa Fe	31	13	10	8	49
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	46
7	CA Estudiantes	31	12	9	10	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	10	12	9	42
9	Los Andes	31	9	13	9	40
10	Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	36
11	Defensores De Belgrano	31	8	12	11	36
12	Racing Cordoba	31	9	9	13	36
13	San Telmo	31	8	10	13	34
14	All Boys	31	6	15	10	33
15	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	32
16	Atletico Mitre	31	6	14	11	32
17	San Miguel	31	6	13	12	31
18	Acassuso	31	7	8	16	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	31	49	31	+18	55
2	Deportivo Madryn	31	44	28	+16	50
3	Godoy Cruz	31	40	28	+12	53
4	Colon Santa Fe	31	38	25	+13	49
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	36	25	+11	61
6	CA Estudiantes	31	29	26	+3	45
7	Chaco For Ever	31	28	31	-3	36
8	Racing Cordoba	31	28	38	-10	36
9	Atletico Mitre	31	27	39	-12	32
10	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	26	28	-2	42
11	San Telmo	31	25	34	-9	34
12	San Miguel	31	25	36	-11	31
13	Los Andes	31	24	21	+3	40
14	Almirante Brown	31	23	18	+5	46
15	Defensores De Belgrano	31	23	27	-4	36
16	Acassuso	31	22	34	-12	29
17	Central Norte	31	19	28	-9	32
18	All Boys	31	17	26	-9	33