Acassuso vs Godoy Cruz Statistics & Analysis

Acassuso

Aug 21, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Godoy Cruz

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Acassuso Godoy Cruz ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4032979

Closing Odds 3.34

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Godoy Cruz win · Acassuso 0–1 Godoy Cruz

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Acassuso (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Acassuso (1X2)	36.1	28.5	+7.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	32.3	-2.6
Godoy Cruz (1X2)	34.2	39.2	-5.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	32.6	+15.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	67.4	-15.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.6%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Acassuso (1X2)	3.34	3.34
Draw (1X2)	2.95	2.95
Godoy Cruz (1X2)	2.43	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	2.91	2.91
Under 2.5 goals	1.41	1.41

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Acassuso vs Godoy Cruz
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Acassuso 1.32 — Godoy Cruz 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 34.7% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +40.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	29	16	7	6	55
2	Ferro Carril Oeste	29	16	7	6	55
3	Godoy Cruz	29	14	7	8	49
4	Deportivo Madryn	29	12	10	7	46
5	Almirante Brown	29	12	10	7	46
6	Colon Santa Fe	29	12	9	8	45
7	CA Estudiantes	29	10	9	10	39
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	29	9	12	8	39
9	Los Andes	29	8	13	8	37
10	Racing Cordoba	29	9	8	12	35
11	Chaco For Ever	29	8	9	12	33
12	Defensores De Belgrano	29	7	12	10	33
13	Atletico Mitre	29	6	14	9	32
14	Central Norte	29	6	13	10	31
15	All Boys	29	6	13	10	31
16	San Telmo	29	7	10	12	31
17	San Miguel	29	6	12	11	30
18	Acassuso	29	5	8	16	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	29	47	27	+20	55
2	Deportivo Madryn	29	42	28	+14	46
3	Godoy Cruz	29	36	25	+11	49
4	Colon Santa Fe	29	35	25	+10	45
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	29	34	25	+9	55
6	Atletico Mitre	29	27	35	-8	32
7	CA Estudiantes	29	26	25	+1	39
8	Chaco For Ever	29	26	29	-3	33
9	Racing Cordoba	29	26	34	-8	35
10	Ciudad de Bolívar	29	24	26	-2	39
11	Almirante Brown	29	23	16	+7	46
12	San Telmo	29	23	33	-10	31
13	San Miguel	29	23	33	-10	30
14	Los Andes	29	22	17	+5	37
15	Defensores De Belgrano	29	22	26	-4	33
16	Central Norte	29	19	27	-8	31
17	Acassuso	29	19	34	-15	23
18	All Boys	29	16	25	-9	31