Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atlanta

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atlanta Statistics & Analysis

Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste
Aug 15, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 59%
Atlanta Atlanta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3365172

Closing Odds 5.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ferro Carril Oeste win · Ferro Carril Oeste 3–1 Atlanta
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atlanta (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 16.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ferro Carril Oeste (1X2) 36.6 50.0 -13.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.6 -1.9
Atlanta (1X2) 33.8 18.4 +15.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 31.4 +16.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 68.6 -16.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 16.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Ferro Carril Oeste (1X2) 1.9 1.9 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Atlanta (1X2) 5.15 5.15 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.01 3.01 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atlanta
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Ferro Carril Oeste 1.33 — Atlanta 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +16.4 pts · Est. EV: +42.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 29 16 7 6 55
2 Ferro Carril Oeste 29 16 7 6 55
3 Godoy Cruz 29 14 7 8 49
4 Deportivo Madryn 29 12 10 7 46
5 Almirante Brown 29 12 10 7 46
6 Colon Santa Fe 29 12 9 8 45
7 CA Estudiantes 29 10 9 10 39
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 29 9 12 8 39
9 Los Andes 29 8 13 8 37
10 Racing Cordoba 29 9 8 12 35
11 Chaco For Ever 29 8 9 12 33
12 Defensores De Belgrano 29 7 12 10 33
13 Atletico Mitre 29 6 14 9 32
14 Central Norte 29 6 13 10 31
15 All Boys 29 6 13 10 31
16 San Telmo 29 7 10 12 31
17 San Miguel 29 6 12 11 30
18 Acassuso 29 5 8 16 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 29 47 27 +20 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 29 42 28 +14 46
3 Godoy Cruz 29 36 25 +11 49
4 Colon Santa Fe 29 35 25 +10 45
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 29 34 25 +9 55
6 Atletico Mitre 29 27 35 -8 32
7 CA Estudiantes 29 26 25 +1 39
8 Chaco For Ever 29 26 29 -3 33
9 Racing Cordoba 29 26 34 -8 35
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 29 24 26 -2 39
11 Almirante Brown 29 23 16 +7 46
12 San Telmo 29 23 33 -10 31
13 San Miguel 29 23 33 -10 30
14 Los Andes 29 22 17 +5 37
15 Defensores De Belgrano 29 22 26 -4 33
16 Central Norte 29 19 27 -8 31
17 Acassuso 29 19 34 -15 23
18 All Boys 29 16 25 -9 31
Primera Nacional Argentina. Primera Nacional Predictions