Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Acassuso vs Midland

Acassuso vs Midland Statistics & Analysis

Acassuso Acassuso
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Midland Midland
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Acassuso Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3233885

Closing Odds 3.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Acassuso 1–1 Midland
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Acassuso (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 18.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Acassuso (1X2) 36.1 23.9 +12.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 35.2 -5.5
Midland (1X2) 34.2 40.9 -6.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 29.7 +18.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 70.3 -18.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.7%. The difference — about 18.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Acassuso (1X2) 3.99 3.99 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.71 2.71 0.0
Midland (1X2) 2.33 2.33 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.19 3.19 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.35 1.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Acassuso vs Midland
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Acassuso 1.32 — Midland 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 39.7% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +36.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 30 17 7 6 58
2 Deportivo Moron 30 16 7 7 55
3 Godoy Cruz 30 15 7 8 52
4 Deportivo Madryn 30 13 10 7 49
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores De Belgrano 30 8 12 10 36
12 Racing Cordoba 30 9 8 13 35
13 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
14 Atletico Mitre 30 6 14 10 32
15 Central Norte 30 6 13 11 31
16 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
17 San Telmo 30 7 10 13 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 30 48 29 +19 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 30 44 28 +16 49
3 Colon Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
4 Godoy Cruz 30 38 26 +12 52
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 30 35 25 +10 58
6 CA Estudiantes 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Atletico Mitre 30 27 37 -10 32
9 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
10 Racing Cordoba 30 26 36 -10 35
11 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
12 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
13 Defensores De Belgrano 30 23 26 -3 36
14 San Telmo 30 23 34 -11 31
15 Los Andes 30 22 20 +2 37
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 30 19 28 -9 31
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33
Primera Nacional Argentina. Primera Nacional Predictions