Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Colegiales vs Midland

Colegiales vs Midland Statistics & Analysis

Colegiales Colegiales
Sep 02, 2026 - 23:00
3 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 47%
Midland Midland
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Colegiales Colegiales ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1463793

Closing Odds 2.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Colegiales win · Colegiales 3–0 Midland
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Colegiales (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 19.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Colegiales (1X2) 40.5 32.0 +8.5
Draw (1X2) 29.4 36.7 -7.3
Midland (1X2) 30.1 31.3 -1.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 29.2 +19.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 70.8 -19.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.2%. The difference — about 19.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Colegiales (1X2) 2.98 2.98 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Midland (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.25 3.25 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.34 1.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Colegiales vs Midland
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Colegiales 1.41 — Midland 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 30.6% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +63.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 18 7 6 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 50
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores De Belgrano 31 8 12 11 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 32
16 Atletico Mitre 31 6 14 11 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 31 49 31 +18 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 31 44 28 +16 50
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colon Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 36 25 +11 61
6 CA Estudiantes 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Racing Cordoba 31 28 38 -10 36
9 Atletico Mitre 31 27 39 -12 32
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
11 San Telmo 31 25 34 -9 34
12 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
13 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
14 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
15 Defensores De Belgrano 31 23 27 -4 36
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 31 19 28 -9 32
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33
Primera Nacional Argentina. Primera Nacional Predictions