Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Almagro vs Gimnasia Y Tiro

Almagro vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Statistics & Analysis

Almagro Almagro
Aug 05, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.17
2 1.43
xG Accuracy: 62%
Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449878

Closing Odds 3.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Gimnasia Y Tiro win · Almagro 0–2 Gimnasia Y Tiro
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gimnasia Y Tiro (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 18.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Almagro (1X2) 29.3 31.7 -2.4
Draw (1X2) 29.4 37.0 -7.6
Gimnasia Y Tiro (1X2) 41.4 31.4 +10.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 29.8 +18.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 70.2 -18.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.8%. The difference — about 18.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Almagro (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.58 2.58 0.0
Gimnasia Y Tiro (1X2) 3.04 3.04 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.18 3.18 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.35 1.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Almagro vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-05 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Almagro 1.17 — Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 31.8% · Probability edge: +16.4 pts · Est. EV: +49.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 18 7 6 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 50
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores De Belgrano 31 8 12 11 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 32
16 Atletico Mitre 31 6 14 11 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 31 49 31 +18 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 31 44 28 +16 50
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colon Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 36 25 +11 61
6 CA Estudiantes 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Racing Cordoba 31 28 38 -10 36
9 Atletico Mitre 31 27 39 -12 32
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
11 San Telmo 31 25 34 -9 34
12 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
13 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
14 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
15 Defensores De Belgrano 31 23 27 -4 36
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 31 19 28 -9 32
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33
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