Mornar vs Bokelj Statistics & Analysis

Mornar

May 10, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 48%

Bokelj

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Mornar Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 12:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2509654

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Mornar 0–0 Bokelj

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: First League
Fixture: Mornar vs Bokelj
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Mornar 1.45 — Bokelj 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sutjeska	36	22	6	8	72
2	Mornar	36	20	9	7	69
3	Petrovac	36	13	12	11	51
4	Dečić	36	14	9	13	51
5	Buducnost Podgorica	36	13	9	14	48
6	Mladost DG	36	14	4	18	46
7	Arsenal Tivat	36	12	10	14	46
8	Jezero	36	10	11	15	41
9	Bokelj	36	8	12	16	36
10	Jedinstvo	36	9	8	19	35

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sutjeska	36	61	36	+25	72
2	Mornar	36	51	29	+22	69
3	Mladost DG	36	49	54	-5	46
4	Petrovac	36	44	36	+8	51
5	Dečić	36	43	45	-2	51
6	Jezero	36	38	48	-10	41
7	Bokelj	36	38	48	-10	36
8	Buducnost Podgorica	36	36	35	+1	48
9	Arsenal Tivat	36	36	46	-10	46
10	Jedinstvo	36	30	49	-19	35