Statistics / Football / Sweden. Superettan / Oddevold vs IFK Varnamo

Oddevold vs IFK Varnamo Statistics & Analysis

Oddevold Oddevold
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.72
2 1.76
xG Accuracy: 77%
IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Oddevold IFK Varnamo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8670350

Closing Odds 3.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result IFK Varnamo win · Oddevold 1–2 IFK Varnamo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices IFK Varnamo (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 12.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Oddevold (1X2) 38.0 41.3 -3.3
Draw (1X2) 25.6 27.0 -1.4
IFK Varnamo (1X2) 36.5 31.7 +4.8
Over 2.5 goals 67.5 55.4 +12.1
Under 2.5 goals 32.5 44.6 -12.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 55.4%. The difference — about 12.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Oddevold (1X2) 2.31 2.31 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
IFK Varnamo (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.14 2.14 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: Oddevold vs IFK Varnamo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 25.6% · Away 36.5%
  • xG (showing): Oddevold 1.72 — IFK Varnamo 1.76 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.5% · Implied: 55.9% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +16.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 24 8 5 11 29
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 24 7 7 10 28
13 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
14 Norrby IF 24 4 11 9 23
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 24 5 1 18 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 24 36 45 -9 29
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
13 ljungSKile SK 24 31 33 -2 28
14 Norrby IF 24 28 35 -7 23
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 24 16 51 -35 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 24 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 24 — — — 29
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
14 Norrby IF 24 — — — 23
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 24 — — — 16