Statistics / Football / Sweden. Superettan / Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold Statistics & Analysis

Varbergs BoIS FC Varbergs BoIS FC
Aug 30, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.70
1 1.78
xG Accuracy: 56%
Oddevold Oddevold
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Oddevold Varbergs BoIS FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5292459

Closing Odds 3.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Varbergs BoIS FC win · Varbergs BoIS FC 3–1 Oddevold
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Oddevold (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 21.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Varbergs BoIS FC (1X2) 36.0 38.7 -2.7
Draw (1X2) 24.8 29.6 -4.8
Oddevold (1X2) 39.2 31.7 +7.5
Over 2.5 goals 67.5 45.8 +21.7
Under 2.5 goals 32.5 54.2 -21.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.8%. The difference — about 21.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Varbergs BoIS FC (1X2) 2.47 2.47 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.23 3.23 0.0
Oddevold (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.0% · Draw 24.8% · Away 39.2%
  • xG (showing): Varbergs BoIS FC 1.7 — Oddevold 1.78 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.5% · Implied: 49.1% · Probability edge: +18.4 pts · Est. EV: +41.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 24 16 4 4 52
2 falkenbergs FF 24 13 5 6 44
3 Ostersunds FK 24 11 9 4 42
4 Varbergs BoIS FC 24 12 5 7 41
5 Landskrona BoIS 24 10 7 7 37
6 Oddevold 24 9 9 6 36
7 Osters IF 24 11 3 10 36
8 United Nordic 24 9 9 6 36
9 Sandviken 24 8 7 9 31
10 Helsingborg 24 8 5 11 29
11 ljungSKile SK 24 7 7 10 28
12 IFK Varnamo 24 7 5 12 26
13 Orebro SK 24 5 9 10 24
14 Norrby IF 24 4 11 9 23
15 IK brage 24 5 8 11 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 24 5 1 18 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 falkenbergs FF 24 46 33 +13 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 24 45 15 +30 52
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 24 41 31 +10 41
4 Oddevold 24 37 32 +5 36
5 Sandviken 24 37 33 +4 31
6 Osters IF 24 37 35 +2 36
7 United Nordic 24 37 36 +1 36
8 IK brage 24 37 45 -8 23
9 Helsingborg 24 36 45 -9 29
10 Landskrona BoIS 24 35 25 +10 37
11 Ostersunds FK 24 33 24 +9 42
12 ljungSKile SK 24 31 33 -2 28
13 IFK Varnamo 24 31 44 -13 26
14 Norrby IF 24 28 35 -7 23
15 Orebro SK 24 25 35 -10 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 24 16 51 -35 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 24 4.8 2.8 +2.0 41
2 IFK Norrkoping 24 4.5 2.8 +1.7 52
3 ljungSKile SK 24 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 24 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 24 1.6 2.6 -1.0 37
6 Ostersunds FK 24 0.6 3.4 -2.8 42
7 falkenbergs FF 24 — — — 44
8 Osters IF 24 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 24 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 24 — — — 31
11 Helsingborg 24 — — — 29
12 IFK Varnamo 24 — — — 26
13 Orebro SK 24 — — — 24
14 Norrby IF 24 — — — 23
15 IK brage 24 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 24 — — — 16
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