Statistics / Football / Sweden. Superettan / Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping

Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping Statistics & Analysis

Ostersunds FK Ostersunds FK
Jun 21, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.33
2 2.03
xG Accuracy: 69%
IFK Norrkoping IFK Norrkoping
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 IFK Norrkoping IFK Norrkoping ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1874260

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds 2.11
CLV +0.0%
Final Result IFK Norrkoping win · Ostersunds FK 0–2 IFK Norrkoping
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 47.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.94 percentage points on IFK Norrkoping (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ostersunds FK (1X2) 27.1 34.0 -6.8
Draw (1X2) 25.5 28.8 -3.3
IFK Norrkoping (1X2) 47.4 37.3 +10.1
Over 2.5 goals 65.2 52.9 +12.3
Under 2.5 goals 34.8 47.1 -12.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 65.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 52.9%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ostersunds FK (1X2) 2.67 2.81 -1.8
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.32 -0.2
IFK Norrkoping (1X2) 2.7 2.56 +1.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.81 +0.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.02 2.03 -0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 25.5% · Away 47.4%
  • xG (showing): Ostersunds FK 1.33 — IFK Norrkoping 2.03 (total xG ≈ 3.36)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 65.2% · Implied: 52.7% · Probability edge: +12.5 pts · Est. EV: +20.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 30
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 25 7 7 11 28
13 Norrby IF 25 4 12 9 24
14 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 25 36 45 -9 30
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 ljungSKile SK 25 33 36 -3 28
13 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
14 Norrby IF 25 28 35 -7 24
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 19 53 -34 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 25 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 25 — — — 30
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Norrby IF 25 — — — 24
14 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 — — — 19