Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Brumunddal vs Ørn Horten

Brumunddal vs Ørn Horten Statistics & Analysis

Brumunddal Brumunddal
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.30
4 1.30
xG Accuracy: 33%
Ørn Horten Ørn Horten
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brumunddal Ørn Horten ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11231282

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ørn Horten win · Brumunddal 0–4 Ørn Horten
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Brumunddal vs Ørn Horten
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Brumunddal 1.3 — Ørn Horten 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 22 17 2 3 53
2 Elverum 22 14 2 6 44
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 22 12 2 8 38
5 Drøbak / Frogn 22 10 5 7 35
6 Ørn Horten 22 10 5 7 35
7 Sandefjord II 22 10 3 9 33
8 Oppsal 22 10 3 9 33
9 Raelingen 22 9 4 9 31
10 Lyn II 21 9 3 9 30
11 Sarpsborg 08 II 22 8 4 10 28
12 Fram 22 6 5 11 23
13 Brumunddal 22 3 3 16 12
14 Bjørkelangen 22 1 0 21 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 22 83 32 +51 53
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 22 61 36 +25 44
4 Sandefjord II 22 54 46 +8 33
5 Drøbak / Frogn 22 50 31 +19 35
6 Sarpsborg 08 II 22 50 53 -3 28
7 Lyn II 21 47 47 0 30
8 Ørn Horten 22 44 35 +9 35
9 Oppsal 22 39 35 +4 33
10 Fram 22 39 49 -10 23
11 Raelingen 22 39 54 -15 31
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 22 36 20 +16 38
13 Brumunddal 22 25 88 -63 12
14 Bjørkelangen 22 16 87 -71 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions