Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Sarpsborg 08 II vs Gjøvik-Lyn

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Gjøvik-Lyn Statistics & Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 II Sarpsborg 08 II
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 52%
Gjøvik-Lyn Gjøvik-Lyn
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gjøvik-Lyn Sarpsborg 08 II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10095070

Closing Odds 4.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sarpsborg 08 II win · Sarpsborg 08 II 3–2 Gjøvik-Lyn
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 7.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sarpsborg 08 II (1X2) 32.9 38.2 -5.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 21.8 +7.8
Gjøvik-Lyn (1X2) 37.6 40.0 -2.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.8%. The difference — about 7.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Sarpsborg 08 II (1X2) 2.33 2.33 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.08 4.08 0.0
Gjøvik-Lyn (1X2) 2.22 2.22 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Gjøvik-Lyn
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Sarpsborg 08 II 1.25 — Gjøvik-Lyn 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 27.2% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +59.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 16 2 3 50
2 Elverum 21 13 2 6 41
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 11 2 8 35
5 Oppsal 21 10 3 8 33
6 Drøbak / Frogn 21 9 5 7 32
7 Sandefjord II 21 10 2 9 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 9 5 7 32
9 Lyn II 20 9 3 8 30
10 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 8 4 9 28
11 Raelingen 20 8 4 8 28
12 Fram 21 6 4 11 22
13 Brumunddal 21 3 3 15 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 1 0 20 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 79 30 +49 50
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 21 56 36 +20 41
4 Sandefjord II 21 53 45 +8 32
5 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 49 49 0 28
6 Lyn II 20 47 46 +1 30
7 Drøbak / Frogn 21 46 30 +16 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 40 35 +5 32
9 Fram 21 38 48 -10 22
10 Raelingen 20 38 49 -11 28
11 Oppsal 21 37 31 +6 33
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 31 20 +11 35
13 Brumunddal 21 25 84 -59 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 16 82 -66 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions