Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Tromsø II vs Finnsnes

Tromsø II vs Finnsnes Statistics & Analysis

Tromsø II Tromsø II
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Finnsnes Finnsnes
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tromsø II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11231227

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tromsø II 1–1 Finnsnes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Tromsø II vs Finnsnes
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Tromsø II 1.32 — Finnsnes 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 22 16 2 4 50
2 Fløya 22 13 3 6 42
3 Alta 22 12 6 4 42
4 Harstad 22 12 4 6 40
5 Finnsnes 23 11 4 8 37
6 Skjetten 22 10 3 9 33
7 Fauske Sprint 22 9 4 9 31
8 Kongsvinger II 22 9 2 11 29
9 Lillestrøm II 22 9 1 12 28
10 Skjervøy 22 8 3 11 27
11 Tromsø II 22 6 6 10 24
12 Strømsgodset II 22 7 3 12 24
13 Bossekop 22 5 4 13 19
14 Ulfstind 23 4 3 16 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillestrøm II 22 71 56 +15 28
2 Harstad 22 69 35 +34 40
3 Fløya 22 61 34 +27 42
4 Fauske Sprint 22 58 71 -13 31
5 Alta 22 56 31 +25 42
6 Skjetten 22 55 46 +9 33
7 Skedsmo 22 52 27 +25 50
8 Strømsgodset II 22 44 51 -7 24
9 Finnsnes 23 42 37 +5 37
10 Kongsvinger II 22 42 61 -19 29
11 Tromsø II 22 41 39 +2 24
12 Ulfstind 23 38 81 -43 15
13 Skjervøy 22 36 56 -20 27
14 Bossekop 22 35 75 -40 19
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions