Harstad vs Skjetten Statistics & Analysis

Harstad

Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 56%

Skjetten

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Skjetten Harstad ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8663115

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Harstad win · Harstad 3–1 Skjetten

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. Division - Girone 5
Fixture: Harstad vs Skjetten
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Harstad 1.25 — Skjetten 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Skedsmo	21	16	1	4	49
2	Harstad	21	12	3	6	39
3	Fløya	21	12	3	6	39
4	Alta	21	11	6	4	39
5	Finnsnes	21	11	2	8	35
6	Skjetten	21	10	3	8	33
7	Fauske Sprint	21	9	4	8	31
8	Lillestrøm II	21	9	0	12	27
9	Kongsvinger II	21	8	2	11	26
10	Skjervøy	21	7	3	11	24
11	Tromsø II	21	6	5	10	23
12	Strømsgodset II	21	7	2	12	23
13	Bossekop	21	5	4	12	19
14	Ulfstind	21	4	2	15	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lillestrøm II	21	68	53	+15	27
2	Harstad	21	67	33	+34	39
3	Fauske Sprint	21	58	68	-10	31
4	Fløya	21	56	33	+23	39
5	Alta	21	54	31	+23	39
6	Skjetten	21	52	42	+10	33
7	Skedsmo	21	50	25	+25	49
8	Strømsgodset II	21	41	48	-7	23
9	Tromsø II	21	40	38	+2	23
10	Finnsnes	21	39	34	+5	35
11	Kongsvinger II	21	38	58	-20	26
12	Ulfstind	21	36	77	-41	14
13	Bossekop	21	34	70	-36	19
14	Skjervøy	21	33	56	-23	24