Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy

Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy Statistics & Analysis

Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II
Jun 28, 2026 - 10:00
5 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
Skjervøy Skjervøy
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2611960

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Strømsgodset II win · Strømsgodset II 5–1 Skjervøy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Skjervøy (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Skjervøy (1X2) by about 6.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Strømsgodset II (1X2) 40.7 52.2 -11.6
Draw (1X2) 27.6 22.6 +5.0
Skjervøy (1X2) 31.8 25.2 +6.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.8% on Skjervøy (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.2%. The difference — about 6.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Strømsgodset II (1X2) 1.7 1.7 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.93 3.93 0.0
Skjervøy (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.7% · Draw 27.6% · Away 31.8%
  • xG (showing): Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Skjervøy 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 25.5% · Probability edge: +26.3 pts · Est. EV: +96.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 21 16 1 4 49
2 Harstad 20 12 3 5 39
3 Fløya 20 11 3 6 36
4 Alta 20 10 6 4 36
5 Finnsnes 21 11 2 8 35
6 Fauske Sprint 20 9 4 7 31
7 Skjetten 20 9 3 8 30
8 Lillestrøm II 20 9 0 11 27
9 Skjervøy 21 7 3 11 24
10 Strømsgodset II 20 7 2 11 23
11 Kongsvinger II 20 7 2 11 23
12 Tromsø II 20 5 5 10 20
13 Bossekop 20 5 4 11 19
14 Ulfstind 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Harstad 20 66 31 +35 39
2 Lillestrøm II 20 65 45 +20 27
3 Fauske Sprint 20 58 65 -7 31
4 Fløya 20 52 31 +21 36
5 Skedsmo 21 50 25 +25 49
6 Skjetten 20 49 42 +7 30
7 Alta 20 46 28 +18 36
8 Finnsnes 21 39 34 +5 35
9 Strømsgodset II 20 39 44 -5 23
10 Tromsø II 20 37 38 -1 20
11 Kongsvinger II 20 36 57 -21 23
12 Ulfstind 21 36 77 -41 14
13 Bossekop 20 34 67 -33 19
14 Skjervøy 21 33 56 -23 24
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions