Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Djerv vs Brann II

Djerv vs Brann II Statistics & Analysis

Djerv Djerv
Oct 12, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Brann II Brann II
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Djerv Djerv ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13668772

Closing Odds 1.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Djerv win · Djerv 1–0 Brann II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Brann II (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Brann II (1X2) by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Djerv (1X2) 36.1 75.4 -39.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 13.1 +16.5
Brann II (1X2) 34.2 11.4 +22.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Brann II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.4%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betinasia

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Djerv (1X2) 1.15 1.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.6 6.6 0.0
Brann II (1X2) 7.6 7.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Djerv; market prices Djerv instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Djerv 1.32 xG vs Brann II 1.28 → Djerv 36.1%
  • Market: Djerv ~75.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Djerv & Brann II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 23 17 1 5 52
2 Djerv 22 14 5 3 47
3 Askøy 23 12 7 4 43
4 Vard 23 12 5 6 41
5 Fana 23 13 2 8 41
6 Brann II 22 10 6 6 36
7 Austevoll 23 10 6 7 36
8 Førde 23 9 4 10 31
9 Sogndal II 23 9 3 11 30
10 Stord 23 5 9 9 24
11 Varegg 23 6 5 12 23
12 Åsane II 23 4 7 12 19
13 Gneist 23 5 3 15 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 23 1 3 19 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 23 76 39 +37 52
2 Fana 23 64 45 +19 41
3 Vard 23 62 42 +20 41
4 Sogndal II 23 61 49 +12 30
5 Djerv 22 58 30 +28 47
6 Brann II 22 54 42 +12 36
7 Austevoll 23 45 51 -6 36
8 Stord 23 44 61 -17 24
9 Førde 23 43 51 -8 31
10 Askøy 23 40 29 +11 43
11 Åsane II 23 39 57 -18 19
12 Gneist 23 39 67 -28 18
13 Varegg 23 37 46 -9 23
14 Fyllingsdalen 23 19 72 -53 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions