Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Sogndal II vs Førde

Sogndal II vs Førde Statistics & Analysis

Sogndal II Sogndal II
Aug 03, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
Førde Førde
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sogndal II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2131919

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sogndal II 3–3 Førde
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 3
  • Fixture: Sogndal II vs Førde
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sogndal II 1.32 — Førde 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 19 15 0 4 45
2 Askøy 19 11 6 2 39
3 Djerv 19 11 5 3 38
4 Fana 19 10 2 7 32
5 Vard 19 8 5 6 29
6 Sogndal II 19 8 3 8 27
7 Brann II 18 7 6 5 27
8 Austevoll 19 7 6 6 27
9 Førde 19 8 3 8 27
10 Åsane II 18 4 6 8 18
11 Stord 19 3 9 7 18
12 Gneist 19 5 2 12 17
13 Varegg 19 4 4 11 16
14 Fyllingsdalen 19 1 3 15 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 19 69 33 +36 45
2 Sogndal II 19 51 37 +14 27
3 Fana 19 51 40 +11 32
4 Vard 19 48 36 +12 29
5 Djerv 19 47 26 +21 38
6 Brann II 18 40 38 +2 27
7 Austevoll 19 37 44 -7 27
8 Askøy 19 36 21 +15 39
9 Stord 19 35 52 -17 18
10 Gneist 19 34 54 -20 17
11 Førde 19 33 41 -8 27
12 Åsane II 18 31 40 -9 18
13 Varegg 19 27 38 -11 16
14 Fyllingsdalen 19 16 55 -39 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions