Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Molde II vs Herd

Molde II vs Herd Statistics & Analysis

Molde II Molde II
Oct 02, 2026 - 16:30
6 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 23%
Herd Herd
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Herd Molde II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10973284

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Molde II win · Molde II 6–2 Herd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: Molde II vs Herd
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Molde II 1.26 — Herd 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 23 15 4 4 49
2 Strindheim 22 14 4 4 46
3 Melhus 22 11 5 6 38
4 Byåsen 23 11 4 8 37
5 Herd 23 9 5 9 32
6 Molde II 22 9 5 8 32
7 Rosenborg II 22 9 4 9 31
8 Nardo 22 9 2 11 29
9 Spjelkavik 23 8 4 11 28
10 NTNUI 23 7 7 9 28
11 Ranheim II 22 7 5 10 26
12 Kvik Trondheim 23 7 4 12 25
13 Orkla 23 5 5 13 20
14 Aalesund II 21 6 2 13 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Molde II 22 61 69 -8 32
2 Volda 23 59 25 +34 49
3 Strindheim 22 58 30 +28 46
4 Ranheim II 22 58 71 -13 26
5 Melhus 22 52 28 +24 38
6 Rosenborg II 22 50 40 +10 31
7 Byåsen 23 50 43 +7 37
8 Nardo 22 50 47 +3 29
9 Herd 23 49 45 +4 32
10 Spjelkavik 23 42 50 -8 28
11 Orkla 23 40 63 -23 20
12 Aalesund II 21 38 62 -24 20
13 NTNUI 23 35 48 -13 28
14 Kvik Trondheim 23 33 54 -21 25
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions