Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / NTNUI vs Nardo

NTNUI vs Nardo Statistics & Analysis

NTNUI NTNUI
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.34
5 1.26
xG Accuracy: 30%
Nardo Nardo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NTNUI Nardo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10081839

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nardo win · NTNUI 2–5 Nardo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices NTNUI (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 28.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
NTNUI (1X2) 37.0 34.9 +2.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.0 +7.6
Nardo (1X2) 33.4 43.1 -9.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 76.7 -28.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 23.3 +28.5
BTTS Yes 54.5 75.2 -20.6
BTTS No 45.5 24.9 +20.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 23.3%. The difference — about 28.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
NTNUI (1X2) 2.56 2.56 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
Nardo (1X2) 2.07 2.07 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.18 1.18 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.88 3.88 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.21 1.21 0.0
BTTS No 3.66 3.66 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: NTNUI vs Nardo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): NTNUI 1.34 — Nardo 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 21.5% · Probability edge: +30.3 pts · Est. EV: +117.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 21 14 4 3 46
2 Strindheim 21 13 4 4 43
3 Melhus 21 10 5 6 35
4 Byåsen 21 10 4 7 34
5 Rosenborg II 21 9 4 8 31
6 Herd 21 8 5 8 29
7 Molde II 21 8 5 8 29
8 Spjelkavik 21 8 4 9 28
9 Nardo 20 8 2 10 26
10 Ranheim II 21 6 5 10 23
11 NTNUI 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kvik Trondheim 21 6 4 11 22
13 Orkla 21 5 5 11 20
14 Aalesund II 20 6 2 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strindheim 21 57 30 +27 43
2 Volda 21 55 23 +32 46
3 Molde II 21 55 67 -12 29
4 Ranheim II 21 53 69 -16 23
5 Rosenborg II 21 49 36 +13 31
6 Melhus 21 48 27 +21 35
7 Byåsen 21 47 39 +8 34
8 Nardo 20 47 45 +2 26
9 Herd 21 45 38 +7 29
10 Spjelkavik 21 39 43 -4 28
11 Orkla 21 39 58 -19 20
12 Aalesund II 20 37 59 -22 20
13 NTNUI 21 31 47 -16 22
14 Kvik Trondheim 21 31 52 -21 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions