Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 / Asker vs Bærum

Asker vs Bærum Statistics & Analysis

Asker Asker
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 39%
Bærum Bærum
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bærum Asker ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13193939

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Asker win · Asker 4–2 Bærum
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 1
  • Fixture: Asker vs Bærum
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Asker 1.24 — Bærum 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 21.6% · Probability edge: +30.2 pts · Est. EV: +124.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 1 3. Division - Girone 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Asker 23 20 1 2 61
2 Gamle Oslo 23 14 2 7 44
3 Heming 23 13 5 5 44
4 Vålerenga II 23 13 1 9 40
5 IF Ready 23 11 6 6 39
6 Bærum 23 11 2 10 35
7 Union Carl Berner 23 11 2 10 35
8 Frigg 23 9 6 8 33
9 Lokomotiv Oslo 23 8 2 13 26
10 KFUM II 23 7 4 12 25
11 Ullern 23 7 2 14 23
12 SF Grei 23 7 1 15 22
13 Nordstrand 23 6 2 15 20
14 Konnerud 23 5 2 16 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Asker 23 81 33 +48 61
2 Gamle Oslo 23 70 42 +28 44
3 Bærum 23 64 45 +19 35
4 Heming 23 60 38 +22 44
5 IF Ready 23 59 43 +16 39
6 Vålerenga II 23 54 59 -5 40
7 Frigg 23 53 52 +1 33
8 KFUM II 23 45 64 -19 25
9 Lokomotiv Oslo 23 43 67 -24 26
10 Ullern 23 42 60 -18 23
11 SF Grei 23 42 72 -30 22
12 Union Carl Berner 23 40 36 +4 35
13 Nordstrand 23 36 52 -16 20
14 Konnerud 23 36 62 -26 17
3. Division - Girone 1 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 Predictions