Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 / Konnerud vs Heming

Konnerud vs Heming Statistics & Analysis

Konnerud Konnerud
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
5 1.32
5 1.28
xG Accuracy: 13%
Heming Heming
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Konnerud Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11220656

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Konnerud 5–5 Heming
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 1
  • Fixture: Konnerud vs Heming
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Konnerud 1.32 — Heming 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 1 3. Division - Girone 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Asker 23 20 1 2 61
2 Gamle Oslo 23 14 2 7 44
3 Heming 23 13 5 5 44
4 Vålerenga II 23 13 1 9 40
5 IF Ready 23 11 6 6 39
6 Bærum 23 11 2 10 35
7 Union Carl Berner 23 11 2 10 35
8 Frigg 23 9 6 8 33
9 Lokomotiv Oslo 23 8 2 13 26
10 KFUM II 23 7 4 12 25
11 Ullern 23 7 2 14 23
12 SF Grei 23 7 1 15 22
13 Nordstrand 23 6 2 15 20
14 Konnerud 23 5 2 16 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Asker 23 81 33 +48 61
2 Gamle Oslo 23 70 42 +28 44
3 Bærum 23 64 45 +19 35
4 Heming 23 60 38 +22 44
5 IF Ready 23 59 43 +16 39
6 Vålerenga II 23 54 59 -5 40
7 Frigg 23 53 52 +1 33
8 KFUM II 23 45 64 -19 25
9 Lokomotiv Oslo 23 43 67 -24 26
10 Ullern 23 42 60 -18 23
11 SF Grei 23 42 72 -30 22
12 Union Carl Berner 23 40 36 +4 35
13 Nordstrand 23 36 52 -16 20
14 Konnerud 23 36 62 -26 17
3. Division - Girone 1 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 Predictions