Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 / Nordstrand vs Lokomotiv Oslo

Nordstrand vs Lokomotiv Oslo Statistics & Analysis

Nordstrand Nordstrand
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00
5 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 26%
Lokomotiv Oslo Lokomotiv Oslo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nordstrand Nordstrand ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8658588

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nordstrand win · Nordstrand 5–0 Lokomotiv Oslo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nordstrand (1X2) 36.1 41.7 -5.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.6 +5.0
Lokomotiv Oslo (1X2) 34.2 33.7 +0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.6%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nordstrand (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.61 0.0
Lokomotiv Oslo (1X2) 2.64 2.64 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 1
  • Fixture: Nordstrand vs Lokomotiv Oslo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Nordstrand 1.32 — Lokomotiv Oslo 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 24.6% · Probability edge: +27.2 pts · Est. EV: +107.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 1 3. Division - Girone 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Asker 20 18 1 1 55
2 Heming 21 13 3 5 42
3 Gamle Oslo 21 13 1 7 40
4 Bærum 21 11 2 8 35
5 Vålerenga II 21 11 1 9 34
6 IF Ready 21 9 6 6 33
7 Frigg 20 9 5 6 32
8 Union Carl Berner 20 10 1 9 31
9 KFUM II 20 7 2 11 23
10 Lokomotiv Oslo 21 7 2 12 23
11 Nordstrand 21 6 2 13 20
12 Ullern 21 6 2 13 20
13 Konnerud 21 5 1 15 16
14 SF Grei 21 5 1 15 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Asker 20 71 25 +46 55
2 Gamle Oslo 21 68 41 +27 40
3 Bærum 21 61 39 +22 35
4 Heming 21 53 31 +22 42
5 IF Ready 21 53 42 +11 33
6 Frigg 20 49 44 +5 32
7 Vålerenga II 21 47 58 -11 34
8 KFUM II 20 41 58 -17 23
9 Ullern 21 39 57 -18 20
10 Lokomotiv Oslo 21 39 61 -22 23
11 Nordstrand 21 36 48 -12 20
12 SF Grei 21 36 69 -33 16
13 Union Carl Berner 20 35 30 +5 31
14 Konnerud 21 29 54 -25 16
3. Division - Girone 1 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 Predictions