Tromsdalen Uil vs Trygg/Lade Statistics & Analysis

Tromsdalen Uil

Sep 13, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.40

1 1.20

xG Accuracy: 61%

Trygg/Lade

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tromsdalen Uil Tromsdalen Uil ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7428131

Closing Odds 1.47

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tromsdalen Uil win · Tromsdalen Uil 3–1 Trygg/Lade

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Trygg/Lade (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tromsdalen Uil (1X2)	40.0	62.3	-22.4
Draw (1X2)	29.5	19.5	+9.9
Trygg/Lade (1X2)	30.6	18.1	+12.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	68.0	-19.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.0	+19.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Tromsdalen Uil (1X2)	1.47	1.47
Draw (1X2)	4.69	4.69
Trygg/Lade (1X2)	5.05	5.05
Over 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	2.91	2.91

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 2. Division - Group 2
Fixture: Tromsdalen Uil vs Trygg/Lade
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Tromsdalen Uil 1.4 — Trygg/Lade 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Eidsvold	20	15	3	2	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	45
3	Kjelsås	21	14	2	5	44
4	Hønefoss	20	13	3	4	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	37
6	Stjørdals-Blink	21	9	3	9	30
7	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	30
8	Tromsdalen Uil	20	9	2	9	29
9	Junkeren	20	8	4	8	28
10	Rana	20	7	3	10	24
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	17
12	Follo	21	3	5	13	14
13	Ull/Kisa	21	3	1	17	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Levanger	20	51	21	+30	45
2	Hønefoss	20	51	28	+23	42
3	Kjelsås	21	49	31	+18	44
4	Eidsvold	20	48	16	+32	48
5	Stjørdals-Blink	21	37	38	-1	30
6	Grorud	20	34	20	+14	37
7	Tromsdalen Uil	20	34	34	0	29
8	Rana	20	34	38	-4	24
9	Lørenskog	20	29	32	-3	30
10	Junkeren	20	29	33	-4	28
11	Skeid	20	27	43	-16	17
12	Follo	21	25	45	-20	14
13	Ull/Kisa	21	25	70	-45	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	23	47	-24	9