Kjelsås vs Stjørdals-Blink Statistics & Analysis

Kjelsås

Sep 13, 2026 - 12:30

5 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 26%

Stjørdals-Blink

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Kjelsås Kjelsås ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7431753

Closing Odds 1.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Kjelsås win · Kjelsås 5–0 Stjørdals-Blink

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Stjørdals-Blink (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Stjørdals-Blink (1X2) by about 18.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Kjelsås (1X2)	38.0	69.4	-31.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	16.8	+12.8
Stjørdals-Blink (1X2)	32.4	13.8	+18.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Stjørdals-Blink (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.8%. The difference — about 18.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Kjelsås (1X2)	1.32	1.32
Draw (1X2)	5.46	5.46
Stjørdals-Blink (1X2)	6.65	6.65

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Kjelsås; market prices Kjelsås instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Kjelsås 1.36 xG vs Stjørdals-Blink 1.24 → Kjelsås 38.0%
Market: Kjelsås ~69.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

2. Division - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Eidsvold	20	15	3	2	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	45
3	Kjelsås	21	14	2	5	44
4	Hønefoss	20	13	3	4	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	37
6	Stjørdals-Blink	21	9	3	9	30
7	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	30
8	Tromsdalen Uil	20	9	2	9	29
9	Junkeren	20	8	4	8	28
10	Rana	20	7	3	10	24
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	17
12	Follo	21	3	5	13	14
13	Ull/Kisa	21	3	1	17	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Levanger	20	51	21	+30	45
2	Hønefoss	20	51	28	+23	42
3	Kjelsås	21	49	31	+18	44
4	Eidsvold	20	48	16	+32	48
5	Stjørdals-Blink	21	37	38	-1	30
6	Grorud	20	34	20	+14	37
7	Tromsdalen Uil	20	34	34	0	29
8	Rana	20	34	38	-4	24
9	Lørenskog	20	29	32	-3	30
10	Junkeren	20	29	33	-4	28
11	Skeid	20	27	43	-16	17
12	Follo	21	25	45	-20	14
13	Ull/Kisa	21	25	70	-45	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	23	47	-24	9