Statistics / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 / Junkeren vs Skeid

Junkeren vs Skeid Statistics & Analysis

Junkeren Junkeren
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:45
1 1.13
0 1.47
xG Accuracy: 64%
Skeid Skeid
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skeid Junkeren ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7450342

Closing Odds 2.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Junkeren win · Junkeren 1–0 Skeid
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Skeid (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Junkeren (1X2) 27.5 39.3 -11.8
Draw (1X2) 29.2 22.8 +6.4
Skeid (1X2) 43.3 37.9 +5.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.2% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.8%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Junkeren (1X2) 2.33 2.33 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.02 4.02 0.0
Skeid (1X2) 2.42 2.42 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 2
  • Fixture: Junkeren vs Skeid
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Junkeren 1.13 — Skeid 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 46.3% · Implied: 30.9% · Probability edge: +15.5 pts · Est. EV: +48.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Division - Group 2 2. Division - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eidsvold 20 15 3 2 48
2 Levanger 20 15 0 5 45
3 Kjelsås 21 14 2 5 44
4 Hønefoss 20 13 3 4 42
5 Grorud 20 11 4 5 37
6 Stjørdals-Blink 21 9 3 9 30
7 Lørenskog 20 9 3 8 30
8 Tromsdalen Uil 20 9 2 9 29
9 Junkeren 20 8 4 8 28
10 Rana 20 7 3 10 24
11 Skeid 20 5 2 13 17
12 Follo 21 3 5 13 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 3 1 17 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 2 3 15 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Levanger 20 51 21 +30 45
2 Hønefoss 20 51 28 +23 42
3 Kjelsås 21 49 31 +18 44
4 Eidsvold 20 48 16 +32 48
5 Stjørdals-Blink 21 37 38 -1 30
6 Grorud 20 34 20 +14 37
7 Tromsdalen Uil 20 34 34 0 29
8 Rana 20 34 38 -4 24
9 Lørenskog 20 29 32 -3 30
10 Junkeren 20 29 33 -4 28
11 Skeid 20 27 43 -16 17
12 Follo 21 25 45 -20 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 25 70 -45 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 23 47 -24 9
2. Division - Group 2 Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions