Statistics / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 / Grorud vs Tromsdalen Uil

Grorud vs Tromsdalen Uil Statistics & Analysis

Grorud Grorud
Sep 16, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
Tromsdalen Uil Tromsdalen Uil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Grorud Grorud ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3608653

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Grorud win · Grorud 2–0 Tromsdalen Uil
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.06 percentage points on Grorud (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Grorud (1X2) 37.6 56.1 -18.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.6 +7.0
Tromsdalen Uil (1X2) 32.9 21.3 +11.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.0 -17.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.0 +17.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.0%. The difference — about 17.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Grorud (1X2) 1.83 1.63 +6.1
Draw (1X2) 3.85 4.05 -1.2
Tromsdalen Uil (1X2) 3.5 4.29 -4.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.41 +4.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.43 2.74 -4.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 2
  • Fixture: Grorud vs Tromsdalen Uil
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Grorud 1.35 — Tromsdalen Uil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Division - Group 2 2. Division - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eidsvold 20 15 3 2 48
2 Levanger 20 15 0 5 45
3 Kjelsås 21 14 2 5 44
4 Hønefoss 20 13 3 4 42
5 Grorud 20 11 4 5 37
6 Stjørdals-Blink 21 9 3 9 30
7 Lørenskog 20 9 3 8 30
8 Tromsdalen Uil 20 9 2 9 29
9 Junkeren 20 8 4 8 28
10 Rana 20 7 3 10 24
11 Skeid 20 5 2 13 17
12 Follo 21 3 5 13 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 3 1 17 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 2 3 15 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Levanger 20 51 21 +30 45
2 Hønefoss 20 51 28 +23 42
3 Kjelsås 21 49 31 +18 44
4 Eidsvold 20 48 16 +32 48
5 Stjørdals-Blink 21 37 38 -1 30
6 Grorud 20 34 20 +14 37
7 Tromsdalen Uil 20 34 34 0 29
8 Rana 20 34 38 -4 24
9 Lørenskog 20 29 32 -3 30
10 Junkeren 20 29 33 -4 28
11 Skeid 20 27 43 -16 17
12 Follo 21 25 45 -20 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 25 70 -45 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 23 47 -24 9
2. Division - Group 2 Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions