Follo vs Kjelsås Statistics & Analysis

Follo

Jun 12, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.22

4 1.38

xG Accuracy: 46%

Kjelsås

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kjelsås Kjelsås ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 11:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2985696

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Kjelsås win · Follo 1–4 Kjelsås

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Follo (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Follo (1X2)	31.5	21.6	+9.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	22.9	+6.6
Kjelsås (1X2)	39.0	55.5	-16.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.3	-14.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.7	+14.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.7%. The difference — about 14.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Follo (1X2)	4.3	4.3
Draw (1X2)	4.04	4.04
Kjelsås (1X2)	1.67	1.67
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.48	2.48

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 2. Division - Group 2
Fixture: Follo vs Kjelsås
Kickoff: 2026-06-12 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Follo 1.22 — Kjelsås 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Eidsvold	20	15	3	2	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	45
3	Kjelsås	21	14	2	5	44
4	Hønefoss	20	13	3	4	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	37
6	Stjørdals-Blink	21	9	3	9	30
7	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	30
8	Tromsdalen Uil	20	9	2	9	29
9	Junkeren	20	8	4	8	28
10	Rana	20	7	3	10	24
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	17
12	Follo	21	3	5	13	14
13	Ull/Kisa	21	3	1	17	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Levanger	20	51	21	+30	45
2	Hønefoss	20	51	28	+23	42
3	Kjelsås	21	49	31	+18	44
4	Eidsvold	20	48	16	+32	48
5	Stjørdals-Blink	21	37	38	-1	30
6	Grorud	20	34	20	+14	37
7	Tromsdalen Uil	20	34	34	0	29
8	Rana	20	34	38	-4	24
9	Lørenskog	20	29	32	-3	30
10	Junkeren	20	29	33	-4	28
11	Skeid	20	27	43	-16	17
12	Follo	21	25	45	-20	14
13	Ull/Kisa	21	25	70	-45	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	23	47	-24	9