Eik-Tønsberg vs Bjarg Statistics & Analysis

Eik-Tønsberg

Sep 27, 2026 - 12:30

0 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 56%

Bjarg

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Eik-Tønsberg Bjarg ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10088069

Closing Odds 1.31

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bjarg win · Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Bjarg

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Eik-Tønsberg (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Eik-Tønsberg (1X2) by about 22.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Eik-Tønsberg (1X2)	38.0	15.8	+22.3
Draw (1X2)	29.6	13.7	+15.9
Bjarg (1X2)	32.4	70.5	-38.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	67.2	-19.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.8	+19.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Eik-Tønsberg (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.8%. The difference — about 22.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Eik-Tønsberg (1X2)	5.7	5.86	-0.2
Draw (1X2)	6.53	6.73	-0.2
Bjarg (1X2)	1.3	1.31	+0.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.81	2.81	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Eik-Tønsberg; market prices Bjarg instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Eik-Tønsberg 1.36 xG vs Bjarg 1.24 → Eik-Tønsberg 38.0%
Market: Bjarg ~15.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

2. Division - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	jerv	21	16	3	2	51
2	Mjondalen	21	13	2	6	41
3	Sotra	21	12	3	6	39
4	Brattvåg	20	12	3	5	39
5	Bjarg	20	12	2	6	38
6	Notodden	21	10	5	6	35
7	Kvik Halden	20	9	4	7	31
8	Træff	20	8	6	6	30
9	Arendal	20	7	5	8	26
10	Pors Grenland	21	6	5	10	23
11	Sandviken	21	6	4	11	22
12	Lysekloster	21	3	5	13	14
13	Vidar	21	2	4	15	10
14	Eik-Tønsberg	20	2	1	17	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sotra	21	45	22	+23	39
2	jerv	21	44	18	+26	51
3	Bjarg	20	42	26	+16	38
4	Brattvåg	20	41	24	+17	39
5	Mjondalen	21	39	28	+11	41
6	Træff	20	36	36	0	30
7	Sandviken	21	32	45	-13	22
8	Notodden	21	30	17	+13	35
9	Kvik Halden	20	28	24	+4	31
10	Arendal	20	28	34	-6	26
11	Pors Grenland	21	24	30	-6	23
12	Lysekloster	21	23	45	-22	14
13	Eik-Tønsberg	20	21	47	-26	7
14	Vidar	21	19	56	-37	10