Statistics / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Lysekloster vs Notodden

Lysekloster vs Notodden Statistics & Analysis

Lysekloster Lysekloster
Jun 14, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 54%
Notodden Notodden
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lysekloster Notodden ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 18:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1749415

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Notodden win · Lysekloster 0–2 Notodden
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lysekloster (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lysekloster (1X2) 36.9 27.4 +9.5
Draw (1X2) 28.3 24.2 +4.1
Notodden (1X2) 34.8 48.4 -13.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.8 -10.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.2 +10.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.2%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lysekloster (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.83 3.83 0.0
Notodden (1X2) 1.92 1.92 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.27 2.27 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 1
  • Fixture: Lysekloster vs Notodden
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.9% · Draw 28.3% · Away 34.8%
  • xG (showing): Lysekloster 1.42 — Notodden 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +10.2 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 21 16 3 2 51
2 Mjondalen 21 13 2 6 41
3 Sotra 21 12 3 6 39
4 Brattvåg 20 12 3 5 39
5 Bjarg 20 12 2 6 38
6 Notodden 21 10 5 6 35
7 Kvik Halden 20 9 4 7 31
8 Træff 20 8 6 6 30
9 Arendal 20 7 5 8 26
10 Pors Grenland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Sandviken 21 6 4 11 22
12 Lysekloster 21 3 5 13 14
13 Vidar 21 2 4 15 10
14 Eik-Tønsberg 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sotra 21 45 22 +23 39
2 jerv 21 44 18 +26 51
3 Bjarg 20 42 26 +16 38
4 Brattvåg 20 41 24 +17 39
5 Mjondalen 21 39 28 +11 41
6 Træff 20 36 36 0 30
7 Sandviken 21 32 45 -13 22
8 Notodden 21 30 17 +13 35
9 Kvik Halden 20 28 24 +4 31
10 Arendal 20 28 34 -6 26
11 Pors Grenland 21 24 30 -6 23
12 Lysekloster 21 23 45 -22 14
13 Eik-Tønsberg 20 21 47 -26 7
14 Vidar 21 19 56 -37 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions