Stromsgodset vs Sandnes ULF Statistics & Analysis

Stromsgodset

Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00

4 1.48

1 1.12

xG Accuracy: 48%

Sandnes ULF

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7446389

Closing Odds 1.29

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Stromsgodset win · Stromsgodset 4–1 Sandnes ULF

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sandnes ULF (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 26.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Stromsgodset (1X2)	43.9	73.4	-29.6
Draw (1X2)	29.1	15.0	+14.1
Sandnes ULF (1X2)	27.1	11.6	+15.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	74.6	-26.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	25.4	+26.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 25.4%. The difference — about 26.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Stromsgodset (1X2)	1.29	1.29
Draw (1X2)	6.31	6.31
Sandnes ULF (1X2)	8.19	8.19
Over 2.5 goals	1.27	1.27
Under 2.5 goals	3.73	3.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. Division
Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandnes ULF
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Stromsgodset 1.48 — Sandnes ULF 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Haugesund	23	17	1	5	52
2	Kongsvinger	23	15	5	3	50
3	Stromsgodset	23	14	6	3	48
4	Stabaek	23	14	3	6	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	23	10	6	7	36
6	Bryne	23	11	2	10	35
7	hodd	23	10	4	9	34
8	Egersund	23	8	5	10	29
9	Ranheim	23	8	4	11	28
10	Lyn	23	8	4	11	28
11	Moss	23	7	4	12	25
12	Strommen	23	7	4	12	25
13	Sandnes ULF	23	7	3	13	24
14	Sogndal	23	6	5	12	23
15	Asane	23	5	5	13	20
16	Raufoss	23	6	1	16	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Haugesund	23	72	39	+33	52
2	Kongsvinger	23	68	35	+33	50
3	Stromsgodset	23	60	31	+29	48
4	Stabaek	23	57	29	+28	45
5	Ranheim	23	56	58	-2	28
6	ODD Ballklubb	23	47	36	+11	36
7	Lyn	23	39	48	-9	28
8	hodd	23	38	45	-7	34
9	Moss	23	38	52	-14	25
10	Sogndal	23	38	53	-15	23
11	Egersund	23	36	44	-8	29
12	Strommen	23	35	52	-17	25
13	Asane	23	34	52	-18	20
14	Bryne	23	32	31	+1	35
15	Sandnes ULF	23	32	42	-10	24
16	Raufoss	23	26	61	-35	19