Statistics / Football / Finland. Veikkausliiga / HJK helsinki vs KuPS

HJK helsinki vs KuPS Statistics & Analysis

HJK helsinki HJK helsinki
Jun 27, 2026 - 14:00
0 2.74
4 1.44
xG Accuracy: 23%
KuPS KuPS
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HJK helsinki KuPS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1551736

Closing Odds 2.34
AI Fair Odds 1.67
CLV +0.0%
Final Result KuPS win · HJK helsinki 0–4 KuPS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 59.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.3 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HJK helsinki (1X2) 59.9 41.3 +18.5
Draw (1X2) 20.2 25.8 -5.6
KuPS (1X2) 19.9 32.9 -12.9
Over 2.5 goals 78.7 59.1 +19.6
Under 2.5 goals 21.3 40.9 -19.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 78.7% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.1%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
HJK helsinki (1X2) 2.33 2.34 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 3.68 3.75 -0.5
KuPS (1X2) 3.01 2.94 +0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.63 +2.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.24 2.36 -2.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Veikkausliiga
  • Fixture: HJK helsinki vs KuPS
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 59.9% · Draw 20.2% · Away 20.0%
  • xG (showing): HJK helsinki 2.74 — KuPS 1.44 (total xG ≈ 4.18)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 78.7% · Implied: 57.4% · Probability edge: +21.3 pts · Est. EV: +36.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 — — — 42
12 Gnistan 22 — — — 36
Veikkausliiga Finland. Veikkausliiga Predictions