Statistics / Football / Finland. Veikkausliiga / Lahti vs Turku PS

Lahti vs Turku PS Statistics & Analysis

Lahti Lahti
Jun 23, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.94
0 2.00
xG Accuracy: 34%
Turku PS Turku PS
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lahti Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 00:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3890276

Closing Odds 4.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Lahti 0–0 Turku PS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Turku PS (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 25.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lahti (1X2) 42.5 54.3 -11.8
Draw (1X2) 24.3 26.1 -1.7
Turku PS (1X2) 33.1 19.6 +13.5
Over 2.5 goals 75.3 50.3 +25.0
Under 2.5 goals 24.7 49.7 -25.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 75.3% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 50.3%. The difference — about 25.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lahti (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.71 3.71 0.0
Turku PS (1X2) 4.92 4.92 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Veikkausliiga
  • Fixture: Lahti vs Turku PS
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.5% · Draw 24.3% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): Lahti 1.94 — Turku PS 2.0 (total xG ≈ 3.94)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 75.3% · Implied: 50.2% · Probability edge: +25.1 pts · Est. EV: +44.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 — — — 42
12 Gnistan 22 — — — 36
Veikkausliiga Finland. Veikkausliiga Predictions