Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Norrköping W vs Häcken

Norrköping W vs Häcken Statistics & Analysis

Norrköping W Norrköping W
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
0 2.15
6 2.91
xG Accuracy: 24%
Häcken Häcken
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Häcken Häcken ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 1-3, 3-2 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10094786

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Häcken win · Norrköping W 0–6 Häcken
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Norrköping W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 24.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Norrköping W (1X2) 20.6 8.7 +11.9
Draw (1X2) 18.0 15.0 +3.0
Häcken (1X2) 61.5 76.3 -14.9
Over 2.5 goals 88.0 63.6 +24.4
Under 2.5 goals 12.0 36.4 -24.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 88.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 63.6%. The difference — about 24.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Norrköping W (1X2) 10.59 10.59 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.11 6.11 0.0
Häcken (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.46 1.46 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.55 2.55 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Norrköping W vs Häcken
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 20.6% · Draw 18.0% · Away 61.5%
  • xG (showing): Norrköping W 2.15 — Häcken 2.91 (total xG ≈ 5.06)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 84.0% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +36.5 pts · Est. EV: +64.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 19 17 1 1 52
2 Hammarby 19 15 2 2 47
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 19 9 4 6 31
5 Kristianstad 19 8 5 6 29
6 Eskilstuna United 19 8 3 8 27
7 Vittsjö 19 7 5 7 26
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 19 5 3 11 18
11 Växjö 19 5 3 11 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 19 3 7 9 16
14 Uppsala W 19 1 3 15 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 19 55 13 +42 52
2 Hammarby 19 46 10 +36 47
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 19 32 29 +3 29
5 AIK 19 26 27 -1 31
6 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
7 Vittsjö 19 24 25 -1 26
8 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
9 Växjö 19 23 37 -14 18
10 Djurgården 19 21 32 -11 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 19 18 22 -4 27
13 Norrköping W 19 17 29 -12 16
14 Uppsala W 19 13 60 -47 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 19 2.9 2.2 +0.7 47
2 AIK 19 2.2 2.9 -0.7 31
3 Häcken 19 — — — 52
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 19 — — — 29
6 Eskilstuna United 19 — — — 27
7 Vittsjö 19 — — — 26
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 19 — — — 18
11 Växjö 19 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 19 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 19 — — — 6
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