Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Rosengård W vs Uppsala W

Rosengård W vs Uppsala W Statistics & Analysis

Rosengård W Rosengård W
Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00
1 2.66
0 2.45
xG Accuracy: 32%
Uppsala W Uppsala W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rosengård W Rosengård W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 3-2, 2-3, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7431114

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rosengård W win · Rosengård W 1–0 Uppsala W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Uppsala W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Uppsala W (1X2) by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rosengård W (1X2) 62.8 90.7 -27.9
Draw (1X2) 16.3 5.5 +10.8
Uppsala W (1X2) 20.9 3.8 +17.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 20.9% on Uppsala W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 3.8%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rosengård W (1X2) 1.03 1.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 17.04 17.04 0.0
Uppsala W (1X2) 24.37 24.37 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Rosengård W vs Uppsala W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 62.8% · Draw 16.3% · Away 20.9%
  • xG (showing): Rosengård W 2.66 — Uppsala W 2.45 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 20 8 5 7 29
6 Vittsjö 20 8 5 7 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Växjö 20 5 3 12 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 20 3 7 10 16
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 20 33 32 +1 29
5 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
6 Vittsjö 20 27 26 +1 29
7 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
10 Växjö 20 23 40 -17 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 20 18 25 -7 27
13 Norrköping W 20 17 35 -18 16
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 20 — — — 29
6 Vittsjö 20 — — — 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 — — — 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Växjö 20 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 20 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions