Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Rosengård W vs Häcken

Rosengård W vs Häcken Statistics & Analysis

Rosengård W Rosengård W
Aug 29, 2026 - 12:00
0 2.06
1 2.93
xG Accuracy: 33%
Häcken Häcken
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Häcken Häcken ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-4 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5127886

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Häcken win · Rosengård W 0–1 Häcken
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rosengård W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 26.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rosengård W (1X2) 26.1 11.6 +14.5
Draw (1X2) 18.3 17.5 +0.8
Häcken (1X2) 55.6 70.9 -15.3
Over 2.5 goals 87.5 60.8 +26.7
Under 2.5 goals 12.6 39.2 -26.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 87.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 60.8%. The difference — about 26.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Rosengård W (1X2) 7.92 7.92 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.22 5.22 0.0
Häcken (1X2) 1.29 1.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.37 2.37 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Rosengård W vs Häcken
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.1% · Draw 18.3% · Away 55.6%
  • xG (showing): Rosengård W 2.06 — Häcken 2.93 (total xG ≈ 4.99)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Rosengård W & Häcken!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 17 15 1 1 46
2 Hammarby 17 14 2 1 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 9 6 3 33
4 Eskilstuna United 18 8 3 7 27
5 Vittsjö 17 7 4 6 25
6 Kristianstad 17 7 4 6 25
7 AIK 17 7 4 6 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 7 2 9 23
9 Piteå W 17 6 4 7 22
10 Djurgården 17 5 3 9 18
11 Rosengård W 18 4 5 9 17
12 Växjö 17 5 2 10 17
13 Norrköping W 18 2 7 9 13
14 Uppsala W 18 1 3 14 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 17 48 13 +35 46
2 Hammarby 17 42 8 +34 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 35 11 +24 33
4 Kristianstad 17 28 27 +1 25
5 Brommapojkarna W 18 24 33 -9 23
6 AIK 17 23 26 -3 25
7 Vittsjö 17 22 19 +3 25
8 Piteå W 17 21 25 -4 22
9 Djurgården 17 21 27 -6 18
10 Växjö 17 21 32 -11 17
11 Rosengård W 18 19 23 -4 17
12 Eskilstuna United 18 18 19 -1 27
13 Norrköping W 18 15 28 -13 13
14 Uppsala W 18 13 59 -46 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 17 2.9 2.2 +0.7 44
2 AIK 17 2.2 2.9 -0.7 25
3 Häcken 17 — — — 46
4 Malmö FF W 18 — — — 33
5 Eskilstuna United 18 — — — 27
6 Vittsjö 17 — — — 25
7 Kristianstad 17 — — — 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 — — — 23
9 Piteå W 17 — — — 22
10 Djurgården 17 — — — 18
11 Rosengård W 18 — — — 17
12 Växjö 17 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 18 — — — 13
14 Uppsala W 18 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions