Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Vittsjö vs Malmö FF W

Vittsjö vs Malmö FF W Statistics & Analysis

Vittsjö Vittsjö
Jul 27, 2026 - 17:00
1 2.39
0 2.72
xG Accuracy: 32%
Malmö FF W Malmö FF W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Malmö FF W Vittsjö ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 3-2, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454896

Closing Odds 6.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vittsjö win · Vittsjö 1–0 Malmö FF W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Vittsjö (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 33.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vittsjö (1X2) 27.7 14.3 +13.3
Draw (1X2) 20.2 21.2 -1.1
Malmö FF W (1X2) 52.1 64.4 -12.3
Over 2.5 goals 88.4 54.6 +33.8
Under 2.5 goals 11.6 45.4 -33.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 88.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 54.6%. The difference — about 33.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vittsjö (1X2) 6.48 6.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.37 4.37 0.0
Malmö FF W (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.74 1.74 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Vittsjö vs Malmö FF W
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.7% · Draw 20.2% · Away 52.1%
  • xG (showing): Vittsjö 2.39 — Malmö FF W 2.72 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 85.4% · Implied: 50.2% · Probability edge: +35.1 pts · Est. EV: +63.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 17 15 1 1 46
2 Hammarby 17 14 2 1 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 9 6 3 33
4 Eskilstuna United 18 8 3 7 27
5 Vittsjö 17 7 4 6 25
6 Kristianstad 17 7 4 6 25
7 AIK 17 7 4 6 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 7 2 9 23
9 Piteå W 17 6 4 7 22
10 Djurgården 17 5 3 9 18
11 Rosengård W 18 4 5 9 17
12 Växjö 17 5 2 10 17
13 Norrköping W 18 2 7 9 13
14 Uppsala W 18 1 3 14 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 17 48 13 +35 46
2 Hammarby 17 42 8 +34 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 35 11 +24 33
4 Kristianstad 17 28 27 +1 25
5 Brommapojkarna W 18 24 33 -9 23
6 AIK 17 23 26 -3 25
7 Vittsjö 17 22 19 +3 25
8 Piteå W 17 21 25 -4 22
9 Djurgården 17 21 27 -6 18
10 Växjö 17 21 32 -11 17
11 Rosengård W 18 19 23 -4 17
12 Eskilstuna United 18 18 19 -1 27
13 Norrköping W 18 15 28 -13 13
14 Uppsala W 18 13 59 -46 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 17 2.9 2.2 +0.7 44
2 AIK 17 2.2 2.9 -0.7 25
3 Häcken 17 — — — 46
4 Malmö FF W 18 — — — 33
5 Eskilstuna United 18 — — — 27
6 Vittsjö 17 — — — 25
7 Kristianstad 17 — — — 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 — — — 23
9 Piteå W 17 — — — 22
10 Djurgården 17 — — — 18
11 Rosengård W 18 — — — 17
12 Växjö 17 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 18 — — — 13
14 Uppsala W 18 — — — 6
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