Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Piteå W vs Häcken

Piteå W vs Häcken Statistics & Analysis

Piteå W Piteå W
Aug 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 2.03
4 2.93
xG Accuracy: 56%
Häcken Häcken
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Häcken Häcken ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 1-2, 2-3, 1-3, 2-4 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2961812

Closing Odds 7.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Häcken win · Piteå W 1–4 Häcken
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Piteå W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 28.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Piteå W (1X2) 25.5 12.6 +13.0
Draw (1X2) 18.2 20.0 -1.8
Häcken (1X2) 56.2 67.4 -11.2
Over 2.5 goals 87.2 59.0 +28.2
Under 2.5 goals 12.8 41.0 -28.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 87.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.0%. The difference — about 28.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Piteå W (1X2) 7.24 7.24 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.55 4.55 0.0
Häcken (1X2) 1.35 1.35 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.26 2.26 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Piteå W vs Häcken
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.5% · Draw 18.2% · Away 56.2%
  • xG (showing): Piteå W 2.03 — Häcken 2.93 (total xG ≈ 4.96)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 82.8% · Implied: 50.5% · Probability edge: +32.3 pts · Est. EV: +56.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 19 17 1 1 52
2 Hammarby 19 15 2 2 47
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 19 9 4 6 31
5 Kristianstad 18 8 4 6 28
6 Eskilstuna United 19 8 3 8 27
7 Vittsjö 19 7 5 7 26
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 18 6 4 8 22
10 Djurgården 19 5 3 11 18
11 Växjö 19 5 3 11 18
12 Rosengård W 18 4 5 9 17
13 Norrköping W 18 2 7 9 13
14 Uppsala W 19 1 3 15 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 19 55 13 +42 52
2 Hammarby 19 46 10 +36 47
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 18 30 27 +3 28
5 AIK 19 26 27 -1 31
6 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
7 Vittsjö 19 24 25 -1 26
8 Växjö 19 23 37 -14 18
9 Piteå W 18 21 26 -5 22
10 Djurgården 19 21 32 -11 18
11 Rosengård W 18 19 23 -4 17
12 Eskilstuna United 19 18 22 -4 27
13 Norrköping W 18 15 28 -13 13
14 Uppsala W 19 13 60 -47 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 19 2.9 2.2 +0.7 47
2 AIK 19 2.2 2.9 -0.7 31
3 Häcken 19 — — — 52
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 18 — — — 28
6 Eskilstuna United 19 — — — 27
7 Vittsjö 19 — — — 26
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 18 — — — 22
10 Djurgården 19 — — — 18
11 Växjö 19 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 18 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 18 — — — 13
14 Uppsala W 19 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions