Uppsala W vs Norrköping W Statistics & Analysis

Uppsala W

Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00

0 2.55

4 2.56

xG Accuracy: 33%

Norrköping W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Norrköping W Norrköping W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1806697

Closing Odds 4.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Norrköping W win · Uppsala W 0–4 Norrköping W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Uppsala W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 28.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Uppsala W (1X2)	40.3	19.2	+21.0
Draw (1X2)	19.1	22.8	-3.7
Norrköping W (1X2)	40.6	57.9	-17.3
Over 2.5 goals	88.4	59.7	+28.7
Under 2.5 goals	11.6	40.3	-28.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 88.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.7%. The difference — about 28.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Uppsala W (1X2)	4.76	4.76
Draw (1X2)	4.01	4.01
Norrköping W (1X2)	1.58	1.58
Over 2.5 goals	1.56	1.56
Under 2.5 goals	2.31	2.31

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Damallsvenskan
Fixture: Uppsala W vs Norrköping W
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.3% · Draw 19.1% · Away 40.6%
xG (showing): Uppsala W 2.55 — Norrköping W 2.56 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 11.6% · Over 2.5 88.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 85.6% · No 14.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 85.6% · No 14.4%
Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (6.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Häcken	20	18	1	1	55
2	Hammarby	20	16	2	2	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	10	6	3	36
4	AIK	20	10	4	6	34
5	Kristianstad	20	8	5	7	29
6	Vittsjö	20	8	5	7	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	8	3	9	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	8	2	9	26
9	Piteå W	19	6	5	8	23
10	Djurgården	20	6	3	11	21
11	Växjö	20	5	3	12	18
12	Rosengård W	19	4	5	10	17
13	Norrköping W	20	3	7	10	16
14	Uppsala W	20	1	3	16	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Häcken	20	61	13	+48	55
2	Hammarby	20	49	10	+39	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	38	11	+27	36
4	Kristianstad	20	33	32	+1	29
5	AIK	20	29	27	+2	34
6	Vittsjö	20	27	26	+1	29
7	Brommapojkarna W	19	25	33	-8	26
8	Djurgården	20	25	33	-8	21
9	Piteå W	19	23	28	-5	23
10	Växjö	20	23	40	-17	18
11	Rosengård W	19	20	25	-5	17
12	Eskilstuna United	20	18	25	-7	27
13	Norrköping W	20	17	35	-18	16
14	Uppsala W	20	14	64	-50	6

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Hammarby	20	2.9	2.2	+0.7	50
2	AIK	20	2.2	2.9	-0.7	34
3	Häcken	20	—	—	—	55
4	Malmö FF W	19	—	—	—	36
5	Kristianstad	20	—	—	—	29
6	Vittsjö	20	—	—	—	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	—	—	—	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	—	—	—	26
9	Piteå W	19	—	—	—	23
10	Djurgården	20	—	—	—	21
11	Växjö	20	—	—	—	18
12	Rosengård W	19	—	—	—	17
13	Norrköping W	20	—	—	—	16
14	Uppsala W	20	—	—	—	6