Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Piteå W vs Hammarby

Piteå W vs Hammarby Statistics & Analysis

Piteå W Piteå W
Jun 25, 2026 - 16:00
1 3.07
1 1.76
xG Accuracy: 46%
Hammarby Hammarby
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Piteå W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 3-1, 2-1, 3-2, 2-2, 4-1 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 07:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3647657

Closing Odds 6.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Piteå W 1–1 Hammarby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Piteå W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Piteå W (1X2) by about 49.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Piteå W (1X2) 63.6 14.2 +49.4
Draw (1X2) 17.0 20.0 -3.0
Hammarby (1X2) 19.4 65.8 -46.4
Over 2.5 goals 86.0 59.6 +26.4
Under 2.5 goals 14.0 40.4 -26.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 63.6% on Piteå W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.2%. The difference — about 49.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Piteå W (1X2) 6.43 6.43 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.56 4.56 0.0
Hammarby (1X2) 1.39 1.39 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.3 2.3 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Piteå W; market prices Hammarby instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Piteå W 3.07 xG vs Hammarby 1.76 → Piteå W 63.5%
  • Market: Hammarby ~14.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 17 15 1 1 46
2 Hammarby 17 14 2 1 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 9 6 3 33
4 Eskilstuna United 18 8 3 7 27
5 Vittsjö 17 7 4 6 25
6 Kristianstad 17 7 4 6 25
7 AIK 17 7 4 6 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 7 2 9 23
9 Piteå W 17 6 4 7 22
10 Djurgården 17 5 3 9 18
11 Rosengård W 18 4 5 9 17
12 Växjö 17 5 2 10 17
13 Norrköping W 18 2 7 9 13
14 Uppsala W 18 1 3 14 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 17 48 13 +35 46
2 Hammarby 17 42 8 +34 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 35 11 +24 33
4 Kristianstad 17 28 27 +1 25
5 Brommapojkarna W 18 24 33 -9 23
6 AIK 17 23 26 -3 25
7 Vittsjö 17 22 19 +3 25
8 Piteå W 17 21 25 -4 22
9 Djurgården 17 21 27 -6 18
10 Växjö 17 21 32 -11 17
11 Rosengård W 18 19 23 -4 17
12 Eskilstuna United 18 18 19 -1 27
13 Norrköping W 18 15 28 -13 13
14 Uppsala W 18 13 59 -46 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 17 2.9 2.2 +0.7 44
2 AIK 17 2.2 2.9 -0.7 25
3 Häcken 17 — — — 46
4 Malmö FF W 18 — — — 33
5 Eskilstuna United 18 — — — 27
6 Vittsjö 17 — — — 25
7 Kristianstad 17 — — — 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 — — — 23
9 Piteå W 17 — — — 22
10 Djurgården 17 — — — 18
11 Rosengård W 18 — — — 17
12 Växjö 17 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 18 — — — 13
14 Uppsala W 18 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions