Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Norrköping W vs Vittsjö

Norrköping W vs Vittsjö Statistics & Analysis

Norrköping W Norrköping W
Jun 24, 2026 - 17:00
1 2.84
1 2.27
xG Accuracy: 42%
Vittsjö Vittsjö
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Norrköping W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 3-2, 2-1, 3-1, 2-3 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 13:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2989669

Closing Odds 3.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Norrköping W 1–1 Vittsjö
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Norrköping W (1X2), Vittsjö (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 35.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Norrköping W (1X2) 49.1 45.5 +3.5
Draw (1X2) 21.0 27.5 -6.5
Vittsjö (1X2) 30.0 27.0 +3.0
Over 2.5 goals 88.4 52.6 +35.8
Under 2.5 goals 11.6 47.4 -35.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 88.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 52.6%. The difference — about 35.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Norrköping W (1X2) 2.01 2.01 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.33 3.33 0.0
Vittsjö (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Norrköping W vs Vittsjö
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-24 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 49.1% · Draw 21.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Norrköping W 2.84 — Vittsjö 2.27 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 88.4% · Implied: 51.5% · Probability edge: +36.9 pts · Est. EV: +64.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 17 15 1 1 46
2 Hammarby 17 14 2 1 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 9 6 3 33
4 Eskilstuna United 18 8 3 7 27
5 Vittsjö 17 7 4 6 25
6 Kristianstad 17 7 4 6 25
7 AIK 17 7 4 6 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 7 2 9 23
9 Piteå W 17 6 4 7 22
10 Djurgården 17 5 3 9 18
11 Rosengård W 18 4 5 9 17
12 Växjö 17 5 2 10 17
13 Norrköping W 18 2 7 9 13
14 Uppsala W 18 1 3 14 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 17 48 13 +35 46
2 Hammarby 17 42 8 +34 44
3 Malmö FF W 18 35 11 +24 33
4 Kristianstad 17 28 27 +1 25
5 Brommapojkarna W 18 24 33 -9 23
6 AIK 17 23 26 -3 25
7 Vittsjö 17 22 19 +3 25
8 Piteå W 17 21 25 -4 22
9 Djurgården 17 21 27 -6 18
10 Växjö 17 21 32 -11 17
11 Rosengård W 18 19 23 -4 17
12 Eskilstuna United 18 18 19 -1 27
13 Norrköping W 18 15 28 -13 13
14 Uppsala W 18 13 59 -46 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 17 2.9 2.2 +0.7 44
2 AIK 17 2.2 2.9 -0.7 25
3 Häcken 17 — — — 46
4 Malmö FF W 18 — — — 33
5 Eskilstuna United 18 — — — 27
6 Vittsjö 17 — — — 25
7 Kristianstad 17 — — — 25
8 Brommapojkarna W 18 — — — 23
9 Piteå W 17 — — — 22
10 Djurgården 17 — — — 18
11 Rosengård W 18 — — — 17
12 Växjö 17 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 18 — — — 13
14 Uppsala W 18 — — — 6
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