Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Rosengård W vs Norrköping W

Rosengård W vs Norrköping W Statistics & Analysis

Rosengård W Rosengård W
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
1 2.42
1 1.54
xG Accuracy: 58%
Norrköping W Norrköping W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rosengård W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 18:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2531692

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Rosengård W 1–1 Norrköping W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.72 percentage points on Rosengård W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 17.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rosengård W (1X2) 54.6 49.1 +5.5
Draw (1X2) 21.8 24.6 -2.8
Norrköping W (1X2) 23.6 26.3 -2.6
Over 2.5 goals 75.6 58.6 +17.0
Under 2.5 goals 24.4 41.4 -17.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 75.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 58.6%. The difference — about 17.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rosengård W (1X2) 1.88 1.86 +0.7
Draw (1X2) 3.65 3.72 -0.4
Norrköping W (1X2) 3.42 3.48 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.25 2.24 +0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Rosengård W vs Norrköping W
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.6% · Draw 21.8% · Away 23.6%
  • xG (showing): Rosengård W 2.42 — Norrköping W 1.54 (total xG ≈ 3.96)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 75.6% · Implied: 58.0% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +22.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 20 8 5 7 29
6 Vittsjö 20 8 5 7 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Växjö 20 5 3 12 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 20 3 7 10 16
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 20 33 32 +1 29
5 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
6 Vittsjö 20 27 26 +1 29
7 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
10 Växjö 20 23 40 -17 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 20 18 25 -7 27
13 Norrköping W 20 17 35 -18 16
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 20 — — — 29
6 Vittsjö 20 — — — 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 — — — 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Växjö 20 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 20 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions