Statistics / Football / Norway. Toppserien / Røa vs Lillestrøm

Røa vs Lillestrøm Statistics & Analysis

Røa Røa
Oct 04, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 72%
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lillestrøm Røa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 06:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11726608

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Røa win · Røa 2–1 Lillestrøm
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Toppserien
  • Fixture: Røa vs Lillestrøm
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Røa 1.19 — Lillestrøm 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.9% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Toppserien Toppserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brann W 17 15 2 0 47
2 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 13 2 2 41
3 Rosenborg W 17 11 4 2 37
4 Vålerenga W 17 11 1 5 34
5 Stabæk W 17 7 3 7 24
6 Lyn W 17 6 5 6 23
7 Molde W 17 5 3 9 18
8 Haugesund W 17 5 3 9 18
9 Lillestrøm 17 4 3 10 15
10 Hønefoss W 17 3 4 10 13
11 Røa 17 2 5 10 11
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 1 3 13 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brann W 17 53 4 +49 47
2 Vålerenga W 17 45 24 +21 34
3 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 42 16 +26 41
4 Stabæk W 17 33 20 +13 24
5 Rosenborg W 17 32 19 +13 37
6 Lyn W 17 30 23 +7 23
7 Molde W 17 23 33 -10 18
8 Lillestrøm 17 23 33 -10 15
9 Haugesund W 17 22 40 -18 18
10 Røa 17 16 36 -20 11
11 Hønefoss W 17 13 30 -17 13
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 11 65 -54 6